THE IMPACT OF OIL CONSUMPTION ON PER CAPITA CO₂ EMISSIONS IN VIETNAM: EVIDENCE FROM AN ARDL MODEL

Abstract

This study examines the impact of oil consumption on per capita CO₂ emissions in Vietnam using annual time-series data for the period 1990–2024. GDP per capita is included as a control variable to capture the scale effect of economic development on environmental pressure. The paper is grounded in the energy–growth–environment nexus and focuses specifically on oil consumption as a key fossil-energy channel in Vietnam’s emissions trajectory. To estimate both long-run and short-run dynamics, the study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, which is suitable for small samples and for variables integrated of order zero or one. The empirical results confirm the existence of a stable long-run relationship among per capita CO₂ emissions, oil consumption per capita, and GDP per capita. In the long run, a 1% increase in oil consumption per capita is associated with an approximately 0.451% increase in per capita CO₂ emissions, while a 1% increase in GDP per capita is associated with an approximately 1.034% increase in per capita CO₂ emissions. The error-correction term is negative and statistically significant, indicating relatively rapid adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. Additional checks show that the main findings remain unchanged under an alternative lag-selection criterion, and stability tests provide no evidence of structural instability over the sample period. The findings suggest that Vietnam’s emissions trajectory remains closely linked to oil dependence and carbon-intensive growth, underscoring the importance of reducing reliance on oil-based energy use in the transition toward more sustainable development.